'Jonas Vingegaard is the favourite for the Tour de France' insists UAE Team Emirates sports manager

Heading into this summer's Tour de France, the tables have turned when it comes to the race's two key protagonists for the past three seasons, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike).

Last year, Vingegaard was the unstoppable force in the months prior as Pogačar faced a race against time to regain full fitness but twelve months on, it is Pogačar who is set to enter the Tour as the recent (and dominant) winner of the Giro d'Italia, whilst the Dane hopes to recover from a punctured lung in order to compete.

On the surface, Pogačar looks to be the man to beat with just a few weeks until the start of the Tour in Florence, Italy. But this time of year is rife for mind games between the leading teams and right on cue, UAE Team Emirates sports manager Matxin Joxean Fernández has weighed in to pile the pressure on their main rival.

"Vingegaard is the big favourite for the Tour," he told Belgian outlet Sporza. "I definitely take into account Roglič, Vlasov and Evenepoel."

Aleksandr Vlasov's name is arguably a red herring – he has one fifth-place finish at the Tour to his name – but Primož Roglič of Bora-Hansgrohe and Soudal Quick-Step's Remco Evenepoel are the two riders who join Pogačar and Vingegaard in what has become commonly referred to as the 'big four.'

With all four riders having Grand Tour titles to their name and each claiming dominant victories along the way, they would ordinarily begin the Tour de France as the outstanding favourites. However, crashes for Vingegaard, Roglič and Evenepoel at Itzulia Basque Country has thrown their credentials into question.

Roglič and Evenepoel will line up at the Critérium du Dauphiné on Sunday, where they will hope to ride into form ahead of July, whilst Vingegaard is continuing his recovery in Tignes at an altitude camp.

Read more: Jonas Vingegaard and Wout van Aert head to altitude camp, Tour de France on the cards

For Fernández, the defending champion's preparations make him the favourite, regardless of the crash that left him with a broken collarbone, several fractured ribs and a punctured lung.

"Last year, Tadej crashed three weeks later in April and was in Vingegaard's slipstream until the Tour time trial [stage 16]," reasoned the Spaniard. "Vingegaard will also have been on an altitude camp almost constantly for this Tour and he is the leader of the team that won the three Grand Tours last year.

"Of course, Tadej was also tired after the Giro. Tadej has had days of burning 8,000 calories. His wattages were also very high."

No Vuelta a España for Pogačar this year

Fernández's words were not to cast doubt on the abilities of his own leader, far from it, but it is clear that UAE Team Emirates are keen to put the pressure on Visma-Lease a Bike. This much has been obvious since their training camp in December when the UAE Team Emirates squad was named.

Read more: Pavel Sivakov: The pressure to win the Tour de France is on Visma-Lease a Bike

Vingegaard has, of course, won the past two Tours de France and has the chance to surpass Pogačar in winning three editions by the end of this summer. The Slovenian is battling the tides of history, looking to become the first man to do the Giro-Tour double since 1998, but Fernández does not see this as an issue.

"He didn't shake an 80km solo out of his sleeve like in the Strade Bianche. And Tadej never had to fight for his position in the peloton thanks to the perfect work of his teammates," he noted, pointing to the strength of their team for the Tour.

"We definitely have a great team for the Tour. Tadej is our only leader. But there are still teams with a strong leader."

Read more: ‘I felt super strong’ – Tadej Pogačar emerges from Giro d’Italia an improved Grand Tour rider

With Vingegaard's Tour de France participation looking more likely by the day, it appears as though the gates have been drawn and the friendly war of words between the opposing teams has begun.

The fourth instalment of the Pogačar versus Vingegaard rivalry at the Tour de France will be hotly-anticipated and the potential for Pogačar to do the Giro-Tour double has already set tongues wagging for what it might mean for the Vuelta a España. Fernández, though, was quick to bat away any notion of Pogačar looking to win all three Grand Tours in 2024.

"Winning the three Grand Tours in the same year is nice for the history books, but that's not the case this year. The Vuelta has never been on Pogačar's schedule."

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