Analysing Visma-Lease a Bike’s Tour de France long list

Winning the Tour de France at a canter last year through the back-to-back champion Jonas Vingegaard, Jumbo-Visma were one of the most formidable forces seen in cycling since the turn of the century. Their superiority in Grand Tours even extended to the Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta a España they made a clean sweep of the three-week races through three different riders.

With Vingegaard, Primož Roglič and Sepp Kuss heading their stable, the Dutch superteam appeared perhaps unstoppable for years to come. After all, Vingegaard's winning margin over Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) at last year's Tour de France was in excess of seven minutes.

Twelve months on, the team now known as Visma-Lease a Bike is a beleaguered force. Roglič has left for pastures new at Bora-Hansgrohe, Kuss has not shown anything resembling his best form in 2024 and Vingegaard is still looking to prove his fitness after spending 12 days in hospital just two months ago.

Meanwhile, Pogačar is coming into this summer's Tour off the back of a Giro d'Italia in which he decimated his opponents to take his third Grand Tour title. The fortunes of Visma-Lease a Bike and UAE Team Emirates have turned on their head since the Slovenian walked into last year's Tour as the underdog with a lingering injury.

Misfortune hasn't just been reserved for Visma-Lease a Bike's leadership, though, with Dylan van Baarle and Steven Kruijswijk recently ruling themselves out of contention for the Tour squad with an ill-fated crash at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Simply put, Visma-Lease a Bike's Tour de France preparations could not have gone much worse.

It is perhaps a testament to their difficulties that Visma-Lease a Bike's Tour de France long list currently stands at around 15 riders strong, as opposed to the 10-man list held by Ineos Grenadiers.

From the wounded Vingegaard to the young hopefuls vying for a debut, in this analysis, we've run through the riders who could potentially line up for the defending champions at the Grand Départ in three weeks' time.

Jonas Vingegaard

Team role: Team leader

Tour de France pedigree: Defending champion and back-to-back winner in 2022 and 2023

Analysis: We haven’t seen Vingegaard race since he fractured his collarbone, and ribs and suffered a punctured lung in that crash at Itzulia Basque Country back in April, but all indications are that he will likely start the Tour de France at the end of the month. The team have repeatedly stressed that the Dane will only line up if he’s at 100 per cent but the reality is that both the rider and his team will be desperate to get to the Grand Départ with their best hope of winning on the startlist. Not racing for several months and then rocking up for the biggest race in the world, and enduring a mountain stage in the first week, isn’t the ideal situation but the fact that Vingegaard is even back in contention for this list speaks volumes about his recovery and trajectory back to health. It’s also important to point out that he won the race by almost seven and half minutes last year, a colossal differential in modern-day Tour times, so even if the 27-year-old is at 95% he’s still a major contender and favourite for at least a step on the podium. Obviously, we’re not privy to medical notes and the complete inner workings of the situation, but as long as the Tour doesn’t cause any long-term downturn in health for Vingegaard, he’s likely going to be at the Tour.

Read more:

• Jonas Vingegaard and Wout van Aert head to altitude camp, Tour de France on the cards
• 'Jonas Vingegaard is the favourite for the Tour de France' insists UAE Team Emirates sports manager

Sepp Kuss

Team role: Team leader, super-domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Finished inside the top 20 on three occasions, stage winner in 2021

Analysis: It’s been a really strange year for the American so far, with no real results to speak of and illness wrecking his build-up at the Critérium du Dauphiné, where he pulled out ahead of the final stage sitting 38th overall. Even as a backup leader for Vingegaard, it’s a little concerning when looking at Kuss’ season so far, with under-the-radar performances at Algarve, Catalunya and Itzulia his only reference points before last week’s outing. Make no mistake, the 29-year-old will be at the Tour de France if he can shake whatever ailment held him back at the Dauphiné, and he’ll go into the race as a protected leader of whatever formation and roster Visma finally end up taking. A Vuelta a España repeat is unlikely, for a variety of reasons at this point, but one can still expect even a slightly off-colour Kuss to provide a stable of important performances at the Tour. The big question mark is where will his resources be devoted. Will he be working for Vingegaard or allowed to target stage wins, or even work for another potential GC aspiration in Matteo Jorgenson? So much is unclear on that front right now but having Kuss on the long list still gives the Dutch squad options.

Wout van Aert

Team role: Team leader, stage hunter

Tour de France pedigree: 10-time stage winner, top-20 finisher twice and winner of the green points jersey in 2022

Analysis: Unlike Vingegaard, the Belgian has at least posted a race on his calendar since his early season crash with a valuable outing at the Tour of Norway. There may have been no victories to speak of during the short stage race, but miles in the legs and some vital training will have given Van Aert a vital reference point in what has been a disjointed campaign owning to his crash in March. Expectations for the Tour de France will surely be tempered and we still don’t know if he’ll miss the race and choose a different build-up to the Olympic Games in Paris, but the logical step would be for a Tour de France appearance that centres around team obligations and the occasional stage hunting exploit.

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At his very best, Wout van Aert has proved himself capable of winning over all terrain at the Tour

A tilt for the Green jersey can’t be completely ruled out, simply because we don’t know if the team will have a major role in GC just yet, and while a repeat of the 2022 Tour performance seems unlikely, there’s still plenty of scope for a successful ride at the Tour before Paris. It could also be that the Belgian is pencilled in for two weeks at the Tour, with the final week participation based on circumstance at the time. Flexibility is the defining word when it comes to Visma’s Tour de France strategy at this point.

Read more: Wout van Aert makes successful comeback in Norway: 'A lot of uncertainty gone now'

Matteo Jorgenson

Team role: Wildcard, potential team leader, super-domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Top 20 in 2022, DNF in 2023

Analysis: The 24-year-old American has been the team’s unequivocal success story in 2024 with the new recruit winning Paris-Nice, Dwars door Vlaanderen and finishing a close second at the Dauphiné. He’s simply been faultless when called upon and is one of the few riders on the team who hasn’t been beset by bad luck and injury. His role at the Tour de France might depend on the form of others and how certain responsibilities trickle down from the preconceived leaders on the squad. One certainty is that Jorgenson has momentum. That’s unlikely to result in a bonafide GC challenge but at least the management can add Jorgenson to their Tour de France roster without any questions or uncertainties over his potential to perform.

Tiesj Benoot

Team role: Domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Five-time finisher, second on stage 9 in 2019

Analysis: Benoot came through the Dauphiné with a solid performance, helping Jorgenson onto the final podium, and providing the team with enough cover in the intermediate mountain stage to suggest that his Tour de France selection isn’t a topic of debate. The 30-year-old has been at the Tour every year since 2017 and with Dylan van Baarle out of the running, is a candidate for team captain. Quiet, unassuming and always dependable, Benoot is probably one of the first names on the team at this point.

Read more: Inside a pro cycling team mechanics' truck with Visma-Lease a Bike

Christophe Laporte

Team role: Domestique, lead-out rider, sprinter

Tour de France pedigree: Eight-time finisher, stage winner in 2022

Analysis: It’s been a stop-start season for the European champion, with illness disrupting his Spring Classics, and then a DNF at the Giro d’Italia rounding out the first half of his campaign. Laporte’s participation at the Tour de France is therefore unclear at this point, and having not raced since May, there’s a chance that healthy riders with greater momentum get their shot. Much will depend on the final round of training camps and tests, but the Frenchman does have a strong pedigree in the Tour, with a start in every season since 2015, and a stage win just a couple of seasons ago. He’s also a really versatile rider, capable of protecting a GC leader through the flat, working on shorter climbs, and turning himself into a sprinter or lead-out rider if the need is required. That versatility could be key given Visma’s current state of affairs.

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Christophe Laporte won a stage in the final week of the 2022 Tour de France, as Jumbo-Visma dominated the race

Jan Tratnik

Team role: Domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Two-time finisher

Analysis: The wheels fell off for Tratnik after his win in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, with crashes disrupting what should have been a stellar period of time on the cobbles in March and April. The Slovenian returned in May, coming close to winning a stage in the Giro d’Italia and being his dependable best when called upon. His Tour de France participation rests on the health and freshness of others, while there are also rumours and speculation surrounding his future to factor into the situation. A move to Bora-Hansgrohe for 2025 appears to be in the works and teams generally try and avoid distractions such as that during the Tour de France. That said, Tratnik has never been one to cause a stir and he’s the diesel-like engine who can go back-to-back in Grand Tours without too much fuss.

Read more: Giro d’Italia: Jan Tratnik keeps Visma-Lease a Bike’s fighting spirit alive

Wilco Kelderman

Team role: Super-domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Four-time finisher, fifth place overall in 2021

Analysis: Another rider who has sustained an injury this season, Kelderman is back in action at the Tour de Suisse after breaking a collarbone this spring and looks on course for another Tour de France ride. The 33-year-old was once a genuine GC prospect in his own right but since returning to Visma in 2023 has settled nicely into the role of super-domestique. He raced the Tour and the Vuelta last year and looks on course to repeat that exploit in 2024. If he navigates Suisse without any issue he’ll be at the Tour de France, likely offering last-man cover to Vingegaard or Kuss in the mountains.

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Wilco Kelderman knows what it takes to shepherd his leaders in Grand Tours

Koen Bouwman

Team role: Domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Would be making his debut

Analysis: Bouwman wasn’t anywhere near the initial roster for the Tour de France but needs must at this point and with several walking wounded the Dutch rider has been pencilled in for a long list spot. It’s telling, in some ways at least, that the 30-year-old has never raced the Tour de France in his career but that shouldn’t detract from the here and now that Visma find themselves in. Bouwman’s consistency, and wins this season, have provided timely reminders of his class in the mountains, and if Vingegaard is on song, and if the team want to double down on their mountain train, then Bouwman could be a nice addition.

Bart Lemmen

Team role: Domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Would be making his Grand Tour debut

Analysis: It’s been a meteoric rise for Lemmen but after a string of solid performances this year the 28-year-old has been rewarded with a possible shot at Tour de France selection. We would probably err on the side of caution and suggest that Lemmen might miss out on the final eight but if he makes the cut we’d also expect him to form a seamless performance through late June and July.

Ben Tulett

Team role: Domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Would be making his debut

Analysis: Another rider with a stop-start season, Tulett is currently fine-tuning his form at the Tour de Suisse, where he will hopefully demonstrate his form ahead of an all-important second half of the season. The Vuelta a España was initially on the rider’s programme but the 22-year-old is currently being considered for the Tour instead. From the outside, this seems like a long shot, especially given the youngster’s obvious lack of Grand Tour experience but he was impressive at the Giro d’Italia a couple of years ago and is a more mature and stronger rider nowadays.

Robert Gesink

Team role: Domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Six-time finisher, fourth overall in 2010 and sixth overall in 2015

Analysis: Gesink was forced out of the Giro d’Italia early due to a crash but the fall came early enough in the race for the veteran to reset. Like several riders on this list, the 38-year-old is currently racing the Tour de Suisse, and using that race as a springboard for later in the year. He’s not raced the Tour since 2021 and Visma might reasonably opt to give a younger rider the chance to gain vital experience but Gesink is a trusted hand in Grand Tours and would bring balance and calm to a team that will be under pressure for three weeks.

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Robert Gesink, pictured riding to sixth place at the 2015 Tour, has been an ever-present as Visma-Lease a Bike have transformed themselves into a leading WorldTeam

Edoardo Affini

Team role: Domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Would be making his debut

Analysis: Affini raced the Giro and hasn’t competed then, taking a well-earned rest after three weeks in Italy. He’s on the long list but several names would need to drop out if he was to make the team. If Visma brings a sprinter, then the case for Affini might be stronger.

Mick van Dijke

Team role: Domestique

Tour de France pedigree: Would be making his Grand Tour debut

Analysis: The Dutch rider hasn’t raced since Paris-Roubaix but is set to take part in the Tour of Belgium later this week. We wouldn’t ordinarily have included the 24-year-old but we understand he’s under consideration, although making the team feels like an outside bet.

Olav Kooij

Team role: Sprinter

Tour de France pedigree: Would be making his debut

Analysis: At this point, it seems like a long shot to bring the sprinter, but if the team aren’t entirely sure about their GC prospects then Kooij would be a viable option for the sprint stages. He won a stage at the Giro d’Italia, could have gone deeper than the nine stages he completed, and would be a genuine contender for a stage win or two in July. He’s set to race this week in Belgium and could be a wildcard for selection with former rider Tom Dumoulin already stating that the team should take the youngster.

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