Giro d’Italia: Ineos waiting on Pogačar to make a mistake before getting creative in brutal final week

The overall standings at this year’s Giro d’Italia are tightly poised, and while Tadej Pogačar has a commanding lead in the maglia rosa, just over three minutes separates the riders between second and 11th.

Ineos Grenadiers have two riders within that tightly packed set, with Geraint Thomas third at 2:56 and Thymen Arensman 10th at 5:52. In their eyes, the British team would ideally be closer to the race lead but with five more mountain stages, and the critical stage 14 time trial to come, the race is wide open.

“For now, we’re looking up,” Ineos Grenadiers’ sports director Zak Dempster told GCN on Friday during a pre-stage catch-up outside the team bus.

"There are eight mountain stages in this year’s Giro and we’ve done three of them. They’re coming thick and fast now and it’s important that we just manage the flow of our strategy. Of course, we’d love to be closer but at the same time, we’ll crack on with it."

Pogačar remains the commanding force in this year’s race and there’s every chance that his lead could be insurmountable as the race weaves through the mountains and into Monday’s second rest day in Livigno. Thomas is the most accomplished rider on Ineos’ Giro d’Italia roster, having won the Tour de France in 2018, and finishing second here in Italy twelve months ago. His only real clash with Pogačar over three weeks came in 2022 when the Welsh rider finished a distant third behind Jonas Vinegaard and Pogačar but Dempster refused to rule out a maglia rosa bid at this point in the race.

Can Pogačar crack and can anyone take advantage?

There have been two cases of Pogačar cracking in three-week races, with both episodes coming during the two editions of the Tour de France when he was put to the sword by Vingegaard. Cracking is one thing, but the question is whether any team has the scope or firepower to take advantage of such a scenario. 

“To the end of the Giro we’re looking at moving forward," said Dempster. "With Pogačar, as strong as he is, you have to hope that he makes a mistake or has a bad day, and that you’re ready to take that opportunity. At the moment there aren’t any real signs of weakness but the Giro is long and Rome is far, so let's see how we go.”

“Given he’s a once-in-a-generation cyclist people remember when he did crack but it’s not happened that often and even when it has, it’s just been Jonas who has been better, and then the next day Tadej has bounced back and won the next mountain stage. There aren’t so many indications that he’s got that third-week weakness. So if there is any shown then we have to put everything into place and hope that we’re on the front foot,” Dempster said.

“A lot of it’s down to if he would make a mistake. We have a team here for technical stages so you might have an opportunity if you have your eyes open and you’re willing to get creative whenever you can. We have Thymen who isn’t far off GC; we have Jonny [Jhonatan Narvaez], who can win stages. The guys are motivated by getting on the front foot, winning stages, and the GC will happen when it comes. We’ll be patient for now.”

For everything you need to know about the 2024 Giro d'Italia, from the history of the race to this year's route and start list, be sure to check out our dedicated race hub.